GAT trend question

[pusha]

Hi Anastasios,

i had a 4 hit in the last draw with GAT, but when checking the Trend chart, it shows that the Trend is going down. Is the Trend chart only ment for the total real draw range or for the point of last draw to the future x draw?

After adding the actual draw to the history the graph shows a rising chart though.


Cheers,

pusha

[lottoarchitect]

HI pusha, I don't really understand what is the problem here. Anyway, the last blue dot displayed is the average of the last X red dots shown. So if you average over 5 future draws, the last blue dot is the average hits/draw of the last 5 red dots shown. The term "future" refers to future red points starting at the next red point after the blue point in question. So, the last blue dot point really shows how many average hits you had over the last part of known history, so it refers to your comment "Is the Trend chart only meant for the total real draw range". It can't tell you how many hits will occur in future UNKNOWN draws (not in the history), how can it do that anyway with unknown hits performance info? So from your description I understand that you had a couple good hits (assuming 5 future averaged draws) but the last couple of draws had fewer or none, therefore with the new added draw, the trend goes up again. So really this GAT continues its hitting cycle.
What you really do with the blue line is to estimate, based on the overall look it currently has, if what it does will continue or if it is about to change. Therefore, if you notice in the graph high hitting cycles performance and you currently are at the beginning of a new top hitting cycle, based on what GAT did in the past overall (i.e. longer hits cycle than what we are currently in), you can expect this to continue -> good candidate to pick for the next few draws. If you are at a low hitting cycle (we are at the beginning of a hill as we say it) you can expect from that GAT to provide more hits on average in the future draws as well, similarly to what it did when it was at the beginning of hills in its graph. But it is impossible to tell what will be the hits performance (i.e. will the top hitting cycle continue or are we really at the beginning of a new hill) of unknown future draws; what we can tell is how it performed over the known history so to expect this to continue in the unknown future draws.
Did you play those numbers?

[pusha]

Hi Anastasios,

finally i've understand it , yes i did play and had a 4 hit from the GAT number pool, the winnings were for 4-hit & some 3-hit . I'm testing the GAT in 2 Systems. Once with the numbers giving by the GAT and a 2nd system with some numbers changed. Of course i wheel it with WG. It has come to my attention that the GATs are really good in general, but it tends to give neighbor numbers.
Let say the numbers from the GAT are 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10 for the future 5 draws. The number in the next draws contain usually 2-3 hits sometimes 4 and rarely 5. And the remaining numbers from the GAT usually aren't been drawn or if they are, then 1 to 2 position away from the real drawn ones.

e.g. GAT Numbers: 1,2,3,4,5,9,10,30,40 - drawn numbers 1,9,11,32,39,40.

But sometimes it is really not good to change the GAT numbers , other times it can improve the hit rate significantly when taking a little number correction. Which number to choose depends on the lottery itself or its history character.


Cheers,

pusha.

p.s.: following the trend i should have a 5-hit this time but i'll stick with the GAT till it cool down and report it's performance in an another topic.

[lottoarchitect]

Actually you nailed it. I refer to this comment

It has come to my attention that the GATs are really good in general, but it tends to give neighbor numbers.

This is also my experience investigating many GATs all these months. I had several times a 2 or 3-hit and the remaining two numbers were of by 1 (I play a 5/45 game but also observed that on various other lotto games) compared to the winning combination. A possible approach to this would be to play e.g. all the -1/0/+1 derived combinations but this really comes down to the budget available. Perhaps we really don't have to do much in this aspect. The GATs logic is, at least in theory, a GAT will "understand" that one-off and hit exactly the correct numbers. Perhaps such a GAT may be found at the 100M+ range but this still remains an open question for now. Also you could suggest your approach on what numbers to change.

cheers
lottoarchitect

[pusha]

Hi Anastasios,

to the GAT, unfortunately it only hit 1 number . Settings were retain that GAT and run factor 1. After back testing without run factor 1 the number pool were the same... thought it would adapt to 1 past draws?

My approach is really simple. I try to list them in steps. Maybe we all can take advance of it or find a way to optimize it. It is a general way that i use for all kind of Lotteries.

1. Check the Lotto Frequency e.g. 5/50 i take 50/5 and take therefor the past 10 draws in account (some Lottery it doesn't work, you might have to take the Range from past 10-20).

2. In most Lottery the number for a 4+ or often for a 5 and sometimes even in a 6/xx game a 6-hit are located in the Top 15 and Worst 20 numbers of the occurence ranking.

3. Run GAT to get the numbers, i usually have 3 criterias: %-hit/Chart trend/Occurence, if all 3 criterias are giving from a GAT is high, i choose that GAT. It doesn't help if there's a high Occurence but the trend is going down and the %-hit for 2/3 are low.

4. Some numbers repeat in these past 10 draws, if they are also in the GAT, they're fixed. Numbers from my GAT which isn't included in the past 10 draws will be removed or if they are -1/+1 from the numbers which are included in the past 10 draws, i will choose the numbers from the past instead of the GAT. I also check the number to point 2.

5. In some Lotteries, you have a significant pattern in Number Groups, SUM and Number Distance. If you can narrow them down the chance to have good hit in a smaller system is really high, but we should know that by using those filters we might filter out the tickets which might have a good chance to win! So using those pattern Filters is really sensitive and i only use it if i'm really sure about it, 7/10 times it works . Especially the Number Distance is tricky. The chance to point out 6/7 correct Distance is really low, i recommend to point out 3-4 Distance where you are really sure how it will drop and leave the rest.

6. I press my thumbs

A general thing that might be true, but it has came to my attention is that a GAT hit's really well if it is close to the ticket index number. Let say 6/49 has 13.x million combinations and if the combination of the next draw has the index 1.000.000, than the GAT around 1.000.000 has really good hits. Maybe it is only my subjective feeling...

If you have any thought please share them. Have a nice Sunday folks.


Cheers,

pusha.

[lottoarchitect]

Hi pusha, have you actually tested this approach over a given test period?

to the GAT, unfortunately it only hit 1 number . Settings were retain that GAT and run factor 1. After back testing without run factor 1 the number pool were the same... thought it would adapt to 1 past draws?

This can happen especially when at the given draw we have 0 or 1 hits top. I would expect however a slight change at the order of numbers proposed by the GAT (or in most cases a completely new prediction). Don't you see any change, even the smallest, in the order of preference?

2. In most Lottery the number for a 4+ or often for a 5 and sometimes even in a 6/xx game a 6-hit are located in the Top 15 and Worst 20 numbers of the occurence ranking.

I assume here you refer to a the numbers occurence analysis. True observation in some cases but really the numbers spread all over the range in the long run. Difficult to go much further based on this approach as it was my experience with Lotto Architect's analysis over that aspect.

A general thing that might be true, but it has came to my attention is that a GAT hit's really well if it is close to the ticket index number. Let say 6/49 has 13.x million combinations and if the combination of the next draw has the index 1.000.000, than the GAT around 1.000.000 has really good hits. Maybe it is only my subjective feeling...

Never crossed my mind to check the index of a draw against the GAT ID number. I find it really amusing if this does actually happen since these are completely unrelated. Perhaps it was an once off incident of pure coincindence.

cheers
lottoarchitect

[pusha]

Hi Anastasios,

1. I'll run the ticket next 3 draws that my look 5 future draws should be complete. I'll report after the 5th.
2. Nope nothing, which is strange imo. Usually i can see a little change in % or number order, even it is slightly.
3. Indeed the number are spread overall, but as long as the lotto is complete, they're not even spread imo. But your right too that long term it is hard to follow that strategy profitable.
4. It just came to my attention when analysing GATs with the History of the draws. I'll give it a closer look in the future, maybe it is really only coincindence.


Cheers,

pusha.

[pusha]

Hi Anastasios,

good news the predicted 5 hit was a 4 hit, again with the neigbourh number method -1/0/+1 we would have get a 5 hit. The result 1x 4 hit and 3x 3 hit in the wheel. We're getting closer!

We should give the GAT the time to hit in its predictiong cycle as you said. I'll look for a method to finetune it with a better approach to the winning numbers in our pool.

Top/Worst Numbers in its Occurence of all history draw: 5 numbers were in the Top15, 0 in the worst 20.

GAT Number has no relation with Ticket Position.

Cheers,

pusha.

[pusha]

Hi peepz,

GAT gave me another 5-hit, where 1 number is a Bonus Ball. So the winnings contains a 4+ and several 3+ and 3, wheels were made by WG with the average SUM Range Even/Odd and Position Filters.


Cheers,

pusha.

[lottoarchitect]

Is it so far 3 4-hit plus wins in a row??? That's amazing result! Congrats pusha! I think your next topic should be "step-by-step instructions to win the beast" hehe Is the same GAT used for subsequent future draws (what run factor are you in right now)?
Hey... maybe you could also make some sort of testimonial for the website too sometime?

cheers
lottoarchitect