Which wheel to pick
Posted: Sun Jan 27, 2008 5:34 am
TRANSFERED FROM OLD FORUM
Hi Lotto Architect,
Just a general question on which wheel to pick, where although one wishes to aim for the main prize but if your selected numbers do not completely coincide with the drawn numbers how can one maximise with lessor prize dividends? Thus can you advise whether one should choose say (for a 6 ball lottery) a wheel where the guarantee is 4 if 5, or 4 if 4 or should one choose 4 if 6? I would expect to apply some intelligent filtering to the resultant wheel to get the game plays down to my budget level.
thanks
relowe
The type of wheel to choose depends clearly on the hit ratios you have for a specified prize schedule. If you use the HCD system to pick numbers, the hit ratio for eg 4 correct numbers is the sum of all categories (4 & 5 & 6 hits). That means if HCD suggests the following (100 draws tested):
Match 0: 3
Match 1: 10
Match 2: 22
Match 3: 28
Match 4: 25
Match 5: 10
Match 6: 2
Then,
hit ratio for 3 correct numbers is M3+M4+M5+M6=28+25+10+2=65
hit ratio for 4 correct numbers is M4+M5+M6=25+10+2=37
hit ratio for 5 correct numbers is M5+M6=10+2=12
hit ratio for 6 correct numbers is M6=2
You have to balance the cost of the wheel and the hit ratio you've determined.
Filtering is not suggested when using abbreviated wheels. However, there are several enhancements to be added to help improve your hits.
Hi Lotto Architect,
Just a general question on which wheel to pick, where although one wishes to aim for the main prize but if your selected numbers do not completely coincide with the drawn numbers how can one maximise with lessor prize dividends? Thus can you advise whether one should choose say (for a 6 ball lottery) a wheel where the guarantee is 4 if 5, or 4 if 4 or should one choose 4 if 6? I would expect to apply some intelligent filtering to the resultant wheel to get the game plays down to my budget level.
thanks
relowe
The type of wheel to choose depends clearly on the hit ratios you have for a specified prize schedule. If you use the HCD system to pick numbers, the hit ratio for eg 4 correct numbers is the sum of all categories (4 & 5 & 6 hits). That means if HCD suggests the following (100 draws tested):
Match 0: 3
Match 1: 10
Match 2: 22
Match 3: 28
Match 4: 25
Match 5: 10
Match 6: 2
Then,
hit ratio for 3 correct numbers is M3+M4+M5+M6=28+25+10+2=65
hit ratio for 4 correct numbers is M4+M5+M6=25+10+2=37
hit ratio for 5 correct numbers is M5+M6=10+2=12
hit ratio for 6 correct numbers is M6=2
You have to balance the cost of the wheel and the hit ratio you've determined.
Filtering is not suggested when using abbreviated wheels. However, there are several enhancements to be added to help improve your hits.